I am a Jeff Bezos fan. To me he is a great example of an entrepreneur that kept to a strategy he believed in and persevered to arguably great success. Yes, many mistakes were made along the way, yet he learned from them and moved-on. Impressive and as an entrepreneur myself – something I yearn to achieve.
People that know me and my digital publishing roots have asked if I use a Kindle. The question is a good one and even my wife asks me at every special occasion, “Do you want a Kindle?” After much thought, and Kindle play-time, the answer is no. I don’t want one and can’t see myself using it. Some of the reasons I came to this conclusion are articulated well in the 6,219 word review of the Kindle by Novelist Nicholson Baker in his article published in the New Yorker magazine.
Yes, the Kindle has achieved some impressive commercial sales results. As reported by Jeff Bezos at the May 2009 launch of the Kindle DX (large-screen version,) within 18 months of launch – sales are 35% of the same printed books. This is up from 13% of the same just a few months back. A very impressive statistic, especially given analyst estimates of $1.2 – $1.4 billion in sales by 2010.
I don’t agree with these Kindle 2010 estimates as I contend (despite the Sony ebook launch) Amazon has leveraged a first mover advantage. Among other competition, I suspect Apple will become a significant market player and own a material market share by the end of 2010, stealing share from Amazon.
The Kindle is a great technology leap for book lovers given the instant gratification and storage solution. Having thousands of books available at your fingertips anywhere is awesome. Also being able to store an entire library on your small mobile device is great. Unfortunately for a technology geek like myself, this is expected and long overdue.
Here are four reasons I believe the Kindle is a step in the wrong direction:
1) No Touchscreen. Amazon has done a great job trying to “be-like-Apple.” Lots of great marketing efforts, impressive packaging and user experience focus on opening the box, etc. However, there is no touchscreen – big problem. Those who currently use a touchscreen on their mobile device (iPhone, Palm Pre, Blackberry, etc.) can appreciate what a great user experience a touchscreen can provide. For me, the touchscreen will likely become an expected “staple” feature, in time. Going from my iPhone to the Kindle was the same experience I had when putting down a Wii remote on a big screen LCD to plug-in a retro game of Packman on an old tube TV.
2) An OK Gray Display – The Viziplex (MIT digital ink technology) display is impressive for those who are enamored with the history and a great technology story, yet is it what consumers want? After doing much qualitative and quantitative consumer research with book users, I am convinced there is a big portion of that market that likes the tactile feel of a physical book. However, I am convinced that if and when these consumers migrate to a digital device for book reading and compare an iPhone digital screen to that of the Kindle, they will choose the iPhone screen. I don’t want to discount the likely consumer research that Sony and Amazon did prior to their respective ebook product launches, yet consumers (especially younger) are rapidly adopting better screen experiences as the expected norm. The Kindle gray screen, although more similar to a book that an iPhone web experience, is less than ideal for my focus group of one.
3) One Dimensional Device (Flat Words) – This is a big one for me. Choosing a mobile device is a huge decision for many, especially me. I can remember in the 1990′s when I was in a product management group at Prodigy and RIM came to us to test out this new device called a Blackberry. Its goal was to replace the pager we wore with email functionality. I carried a cell phone, pager, and now a Blackberry all mounted to my Batman utility belt. Fast forward to now where I carry a slim iPhone in my pocket and it solves for everything. Judging by the great growth in smartphone sales – consumers are looking for mobile devices that meet several needs. The Kindle is only a one-dimensional ebook device. It is my feeling that if consumers make the decision to purchase and carry a mobile screen, leverage available technology and enhance the user experience far beyond instant delivery and storage.
- Why are digital movies not available alongside the sale of the book?
- Why can’t I experience music on the device?
- Why can’t I view a video of an interview with the author before I purchase that book?
- Why can’t I watch a video of the cookbook author baking the cake?
Yes, I know there are folks that like simple and less complicated. I suspect that when Apple does all of this and users have the choice they will speak with their wallets.
4) Target Market – I read an article a few months back about the death of the textbook. Generally, I agree with the premise that textbooks will slowly fade. The general point is that younger generations are more comfortable with technology, the Internet, and more current and accurate data. Expensive large textbooks will dissolve like the old bookshelf full of encyclopedias. It was my understanding the launch of the Kindle DX (large version Kindle) was partly to offer students and educators a digital book solution. Yes, they need it and it is a good thought process. In addition to a larger screen, it includes PDF support – although No Zoom. However, I am suspect that technology savvy, game playing, iPhone using younger generations will be excited about the Kindle feature set and user experience. I believe they will want more and subsequently find something that gives them more.
Rather than purchase a Kindle, Nicholson Baker suggests that consumers use their iPhone or iTouch and download the Kindle iPhone application as it provides a better user experience. He says going from an iPhone to the Kindle is like going from a Mini Cooper to a white 1982 Impala with blown shocks. I smile at that comments as I am old enough to have experienced that one.
Do you think Apple will launch a device and steal market share from the Kindle?
{ 2 comments… read them below or add one }
Joe. Interesting analysis. I saw today that Samsung intro a device in Korea and plastic logic has a device align somewhat with B&N. I assume your views match those? Do you think Apple can pull off a color screen with something approaching reasonable battery life? My sense tells me that the iTablet will be more of a video focussed device (interesting that they are spinning it as a music device at first) and not necessarily a book reading device. I agree about the touchscreen being hard to step back from.
Yes – I did read the news about Samsung, B&N, and AT&T.
I do have confidence in Apple bringing a multi-function device to market that is far superior to what is currently available. It will have challenges and version 1.0. However, Apple has a HUGE iTunes user base and lots of experience delivering great products. I choose to wait until end of year holiday season (expected launch date) to see what they bring to market.